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October 2009 - Tolley

NCCU CREST Seminar Series

Dr. Dennis Tolley

Department of Statistics, Brigham Young University

Models of comply health care systems and their
health policy and economic implications

     Professor Tolley will present recent analyses conducted on the implications of official Medicare Trust Fund reports, and the forecasts on which they are based, for both the long run fiscal viability of the Medicare system and the implications for the current Health Care Reform Act. The analysis begins with the forecasts presented in the Trust Fund report and involves a critical review of the assumptions and methods used in the report. The conclusions generated by the reanalysis suggested that the official Trust Fund reports are overly pessimistic – a conclusion supported by the underlying technical documentation provided by economists at CMS. The implications for the Medicare Trust Funds, and the structure of the National Health Care Reform Act, are significant.

Thursday, October 15, 2009
Room 1221, Mary Towns Science Building
4:00 pm

For addition information contact: Dr. Branislav Vlahovic ( or 919-530-7253).